Chronic Inflammation in the Epidermis: A Mathematical Model

The epidermal tissue is the outmost component of the skin that plays an important role as a first barrier system in preventing the invasion of various environmental agents, such as bacteria. Recent studies have identified the importance of microbial competition between harmful and beneficial bacteria and the diversity of the skin surface on our health. We develop mathematical models (M1 and M2 models) for the inflammation process using ordinary differential equations and delay differential equations. In this paper, we study microbial community dynamics via transcription factors, protease and extracellular cytokines. We investigate possible mechanisms to induce community composition shift and analyze the vigorous competition dynamics between harmful and beneficial bacteria through immune activities. We found that the activation of proteases from the transcription factor within a cell plays a significant role in the regulation of bacterial persistence in the M1 model. The competition model (M2) predicts that different cytokine clearance levels may lead to a harmful bacteria persisting system, a bad bacteria-free state and the co-existence of harmful and good bacterial populations in Type I dynamics, while a bi-stable system without co-existence is illustrated in the Type II dynamics. This illustrates a possible phenotypic switch among harmful and good bacterial populations in a microenvironment. We also found that large time delays in the activation of immune responses on the dynamics of those bacterial populations lead to the onset of oscillations in harmful bacteria and immune activities. The mathematical model suggests possible annihilation of time-delay-driven oscillations by therapeutic drugs.ope

テンネン センイ デ キョウカ シタ キノウセイ グリーン コンポジット ノ カイハツ

Various types of unidirectional and random bamboo fiber reinforced “green” composites were fabricated, and examined their damping properties as a function of fiber content. The loss factors decreased with increasing fiber content. However they decreased gently higher than 40mass percent fiber content, the tensile modulus increased proportionally to the fiber content of about 80mass percent. The definite relationship between loss factor and Young’s modulus was not found. In addition, loss factors of random fiber (10mm fiber) reinforced “green” composites are larger than loss those unidirectional (continuous fiber) ones

Open Access

Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severit

Antithetic effect of interferon-α on cell-free and cell-to-cell HIV-1 infection

In HIV-1-infected individuals, transmitted/founder (TF) virus contributes to establish new infection and expands during the acute phase of infection, while chronic control (CC) virus emerges during the chronic phase of infection. TF viruses are more resistant to interferon-alpha (IFN-α)-mediated antiviral effects than CC virus, however, its virological relevance in infected individuals remains unclear. Here we perform an experimental-mathematical investigation and reveal that IFN-α strongly inhibits cell-to-cell infection by CC virus but only weakly affects that by TF virus. Surprisingly, IFN-α enhances cell-free infection of HIV-1, particularly that of CC virus, in a virus-cell density-dependent manner. We further demonstrate that LY6E, an IFN-stimulated gene, can contribute to the density-dependent enhancement of cell-free HIV-1 infection. Altogether, our findings suggest that the major difference between TF and CC viruses can be explained by their resistance to IFN-α-mediated inhibition of cell-to-cell infection and their sensitivity to IFN-α-mediated enhancement of cell-free infection

A Systems Genetics Approach Provides a Bridge from Discovered Genetic Variants to Biological Pathways in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded novel genetic loci underlying common diseases. We propose a systems genetics approach to utilize these discoveries for better understanding of the genetic architecture of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Current evidence of genetic associations with RA was sought through PubMed and the NHGRI GWAS catalog. The associations of 15 single nucleotide polymorphisms and HLA-DRB1 alleles were confirmed in 1,287 cases and 1,500 controls of Japanese subjects. Among these, HLA-DRB1 alleles and eight SNPs showed significant associations and all but one of the variants had the same direction of effect as identified in the previous studies, indicating that the genetic risk factors underlying RA are shared across populations. By receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) for the genetic risk score based on the selected variants was 68.4%. For seropositive RA patients only, the AUC improved to 70.9%, indicating good but suboptimal predictive ability. A simulation study shows that more than 200 additional loci with similar effect size as recent GWAS findings or 20 rare variants with intermediate effects are needed to achieve AUC = 80.0%. We performed the random walk with restart (RWR) algorithm to prioritize genes for future mapping studies. The performance of the algorithm was confirmed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The RWR algorithm pointed to ZAP70 in the first rank, in which mutation causes RA-like autoimmune arthritis in mice. By applying the hierarchical clustering method to a subnetwork comprising RA-associated genes and top-ranked genes by the RWR, we found three functional modules relevant to RA etiology: “leukocyte activation and differentiation”, “pattern-recognition receptor signaling pathway”, and “chemokines and their receptors”

Multiomics Investigation Revealing the Characteristics of HIV-1-Infected Cells In Vivo

For eradication of HIV-1 infection, it is important to elucidate the detailed features and heterogeneity of HIV-1-infected cells in vivo. To reveal multiple characteristics of HIV-1-producing cells in vivo, we use a hematopoietic-stem-cell-transplanted humanized mouse model infected with GFP-encoding replication-competent HIV-1. We perform multiomics experiments using recently developed technology to identify the features of HIV-1-infected cells. Genome-wide HIV-1 integration-site analysis reveals that productive HIV-1 infection tends to occur in cells with viral integration into transcriptionally active genomic regions. Bulk transcriptome analysis reveals that a high level of viral mRNA is transcribed in HIV-1-infected cells. Moreover, single-cell transcriptome analysis shows the heterogeneity of HIV-1-infected cells, including CXCL13high cells and a subpopulation with low expression of interferon-stimulated genes, which can contribute to efficient viral spread in vivo. Our findings describe multiple characteristics of HIV-1-producing cells in vivo, which could provide clues for the development of an HIV-1 cure

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies

Daphnia revisited: Local stability and bifurcation theory for physiologically structured population models explained by way of an example

We consider the interaction between a general size-structured consumer population and an unstructured resource. We show that stability properties and bifurcation phenomena can be understood in terms of solutions of a system of two delay equations (a renewal equation for the consumer population birth rate coupled to a delay differetial equation for the resource concentration). As many results for such systems are available, we can draw rigorous conclusions concerning dynamical behaviour from an analysis of a characteristic equation. We derive the characteristic equation for a fairly general class of population models, including those based on the Kooijman-Metz Daphnia model and a model introduced by Gurney-Nisbet and Jones et al., and next obtain various ecological insights by analytical or numerical studies of special cases

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials : a modeling study

Background Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. Methods and findings A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d−1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d−1), 0.777 d−1 (0.716 to 0.838 d−1), and 0.450 d−1 (0.378 to 0.522 d−1) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. Conclusions In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model